**Recent official forecasts position 13–14°C as the most likely range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on September 22.** MetService projects a high of 13°C under a period of morning rain clearing to fine conditions, with northwesterlies shifting southerly. Complementary model guidance from WeatherBug and the UK Met Office similarly centers on 12–13°C amid increased cloud cover and precipitation chances exceeding 80–90%. September climatology shows typical daily highs near 14°C, so the current setup reflects a modest cool anomaly from the frontal passage. Market-implied odds heavily favoring 14°C (53.5%) and 15°C (39.0%) suggest traders are weighting the possibility that the front arrives later than modeled or that localized warming ahead of the change lifts readings slightly above the base forecast. Lower outcomes below 13°C carry minimal probability, consistent with limited downside risk in the guidance. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月22日惠灵顿的最高温度？
9月22日惠灵顿的最高温度？
14°C 52%
15°C 30%
13°C 13%
16°C 2%
最新
$10,695 交易量
最新
$10,695 交易量
2026-09-22
9°C或以下
<1%
10℃
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
52%
15°C
30%
16°C
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C或以上
<1%
14°C 52%
15°C 30%
13°C 13%
16°C 2%
最新
$10,695 交易量
最新
$10,695 交易量
2026-09-22
9°C或以下
$80 交易量
<1%
10℃
$31 交易量
<1%
11°C
$105 交易量
1%
12°C
$420 交易量
1%
13°C
$3,021 交易量
13%
14°C
$3,575 交易量
52%
15°C
$2,475 交易量
30%
16°C
$1,001 交易量
2%
17°C
$132 交易量
<1%
18°C
$321 交易量
<1%
19°C或以上
$111 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 13–14°C as the most likely range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on September 22.** MetService projects a high of 13°C under a period of morning rain clearing to fine conditions, with northwesterlies shifting southerly. Complementary model guidance from WeatherBug and the UK Met Office similarly centers on 12–13°C amid increased cloud cover and precipitation chances exceeding 80–90%.
September climatology shows typical daily highs near 14°C, so the current setup reflects a modest cool anomaly from the frontal passage. Market-implied odds heavily favoring 14°C (53.5%) and 15°C (39.0%) suggest traders are weighting the possibility that the front arrives later than modeled or that localized warming ahead of the change lifts readings slightly above the base forecast. Lower outcomes below 13°C carry minimal probability, consistent with limited downside risk in the guidance. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$10,695结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 13–14°C as the most likely range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on September 22.** MetService projects a high of 13°C under a period of morning rain clearing to fine conditions, with northwesterlies shifting southerly. Complementary model guidance from WeatherBug and the UK Met Office similarly centers on 12–13°C amid increased cloud cover and precipitation chances exceeding 80–90%.
September climatology shows typical daily highs near 14°C, so the current setup reflects a modest cool anomaly from the frontal passage. Market-implied odds heavily favoring 14°C (53.5%) and 15°C (39.0%) suggest traders are weighting the possibility that the front arrives later than modeled or that localized warming ahead of the change lifts readings slightly above the base forecast. Lower outcomes below 13°C carry minimal probability, consistent with limited downside risk in the guidance. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,695结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Recent official forecasts position 13–14°C as the most likely range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on September 22.** MetService projects a high of 13°C under a period of morning rain clearing to fine conditions, with northwesterlies shifting southerly. Complementary model guidance from WeatherBug and the UK Met Office similarly centers on 12–13°C amid increased cloud cover and precipitation chances exceeding 80–90%. September climatology shows typical daily highs near 14°C, so the current setup reflects a modest cool anomaly from the frontal passage. Market-implied odds heavily favoring 14°C (53.5%) and 15°C (39.0%) suggest traders are weighting the possibility that the front arrives later than modeled or that localized warming ahead of the change lifts readings slightly above the base forecast. Lower outcomes below 13°C carry minimal probability, consistent with limited downside risk in the guidance. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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