Sam Liccardo secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with 75.6 percent of the vote in the 16th District, advancing to face Republican Peter Soule in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results, underpin trader expectations for the incumbent's reelection. Soule's limited campaign resources and the split Republican primary vote further constrain any path to an upset. Forecasters rate the race as solidly or safely Democratic. Potential shifts in odds would require major unforeseen events such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or sharp turnout change in the final weeks before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$107,267 交易量
$107,267 交易量
2026-11-02
萨姆·利卡多（民主党）
96%
Peter Soulé（共和党）
2%
$107,267 交易量
$107,267 交易量
2026-11-02
萨姆·利卡多（民主党）
$52,992 交易量
96%
Peter Soulé（共和党）
$54,275 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with 75.6 percent of the vote in the 16th District, advancing to face Republican Peter Soule in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results, underpin trader expectations for the incumbent's reelection. Soule's limited campaign resources and the split Republican primary vote further constrain any path to an upset. Forecasters rate the race as solidly or safely Democratic. Potential shifts in odds would require major unforeseen events such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or sharp turnout change in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$107,267结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with 75.6 percent of the vote in the 16th District, advancing to face Republican Peter Soule in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results, underpin trader expectations for the incumbent's reelection. Soule's limited campaign resources and the split Republican primary vote further constrain any path to an upset. Forecasters rate the race as solidly or safely Democratic. Potential shifts in odds would require major unforeseen events such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or sharp turnout change in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$107,267结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETSam Liccardo secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with 75.6 percent of the vote in the 16th District, advancing to face Republican Peter Soule in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results, underpin trader expectations for the incumbent's reelection. Soule's limited campaign resources and the split Republican primary vote further constrain any path to an upset. Forecasters rate the race as solidly or safely Democratic. Potential shifts in odds would require major unforeseen events such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or sharp turnout change in the final weeks before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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