Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$16,049 交易量
$16,049 交易量
2026-11-03
亚当·格雷（民主党）
94%
凯文·林肯（共和党）
7%
$16,049 交易量
$16,049 交易量
2026-11-03
亚当·格雷（民主党）
$9,134 交易量
94%
凯文·林肯（共和党）
$6,915 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
交易量
$16,049结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,049结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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