California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered roughly 85% support for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Following the June 2026 top-two primary, incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce both advanced to the November 3 general election while the sole Republican candidate received negligible write-in support and failed to qualify. This intra-party matchup, combined with the district's structural partisan composition and absence of a viable Republican nominee, produces trader consensus that a Democrat will hold the seat. A late withdrawal, unforeseen legal disqualification, or unusual ballot-access development would be required to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$44,263 交易量
$44,263 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
98%
共和党
<1%
$44,263 交易量
$44,263 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$27,011 交易量
98%
共和党
$17,251 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered roughly 85% support for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Following the June 2026 top-two primary, incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce both advanced to the November 3 general election while the sole Republican candidate received negligible write-in support and failed to qualify. This intra-party matchup, combined with the district's structural partisan composition and absence of a viable Republican nominee, produces trader consensus that a Democrat will hold the seat. A late withdrawal, unforeseen legal disqualification, or unusual ballot-access development would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$44,263结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered roughly 85% support for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Following the June 2026 top-two primary, incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce both advanced to the November 3 general election while the sole Republican candidate received negligible write-in support and failed to qualify. This intra-party matchup, combined with the district's structural partisan composition and absence of a viable Republican nominee, produces trader consensus that a Democrat will hold the seat. A late withdrawal, unforeseen legal disqualification, or unusual ballot-access development would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$44,263结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETCalifornia's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Alameda County including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered roughly 85% support for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Following the June 2026 top-two primary, incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce both advanced to the November 3 general election while the sole Republican candidate received negligible write-in support and failed to qualify. This intra-party matchup, combined with the district's structural partisan composition and absence of a viable Republican nominee, produces trader consensus that a Democrat will hold the seat. A late withdrawal, unforeseen legal disqualification, or unusual ballot-access development would be required to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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