Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voter index, establishing the structural foundation for trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan after Democrats split their vote among multiple candidates, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reinforced by July polling showing Pan ahead. This positioning reflects the district's voter composition across Sacramento-area counties rather than recent campaign events. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or late developments capable of overcoming the baseline partisan advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$50,192 交易量
$50,192 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$50,192 交易量
$50,192 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$25,661 交易量
95%
共和党
$24,531 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voter index, establishing the structural foundation for trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan after Democrats split their vote among multiple candidates, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reinforced by July polling showing Pan ahead. This positioning reflects the district's voter composition across Sacramento-area counties rather than recent campaign events. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or late developments capable of overcoming the baseline partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$50,192结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voter index, establishing the structural foundation for trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan after Democrats split their vote among multiple candidates, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reinforced by July polling showing Pan ahead. This positioning reflects the district's voter composition across Sacramento-area counties rather than recent campaign events. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or late developments capable of overcoming the baseline partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$50,192结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRedistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voter index, establishing the structural foundation for trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan after Democrats split their vote among multiple candidates, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reinforced by July polling showing Pan ahead. This positioning reflects the district's voter composition across Sacramento-area counties rather than recent campaign events. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or late developments capable of overcoming the baseline partisan advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题