Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 9th District House race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 31-point margin there in 2024. As the eight-term incumbent seeking a ninth term, Gosar faced no primary opposition in July 2026 and benefits from established name recognition across western Arizona counties. Democratic nominee Danielle Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, also ran unopposed in her primary but has raised far less campaign cash and lacks comparable visibility or institutional support in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than two-to-one. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could theoretically alter the outcome before November 3, though none have materialized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$26,252 交易量
$26,252 交易量
2026-11-02
保罗·戈萨（共和党）
95%
达妮·斯特宾斯基（民主党）
4%
$26,252 交易量
$26,252 交易量
2026-11-02
保罗·戈萨（共和党）
$10,243 交易量
95%
达妮·斯特宾斯基（民主党）
$16,009 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 9th District House race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 31-point margin there in 2024. As the eight-term incumbent seeking a ninth term, Gosar faced no primary opposition in July 2026 and benefits from established name recognition across western Arizona counties. Democratic nominee Danielle Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, also ran unopposed in her primary but has raised far less campaign cash and lacks comparable visibility or institutional support in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than two-to-one. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could theoretically alter the outcome before November 3, though none have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$26,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 9th District House race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 31-point margin there in 2024. As the eight-term incumbent seeking a ninth term, Gosar faced no primary opposition in July 2026 and benefits from established name recognition across western Arizona counties. Democratic nominee Danielle Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, also ran unopposed in her primary but has raised far less campaign cash and lacks comparable visibility or institutional support in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than two-to-one. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could theoretically alter the outcome before November 3, though none have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETPaul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 9th District House race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 31-point margin there in 2024. As the eight-term incumbent seeking a ninth term, Gosar faced no primary opposition in July 2026 and benefits from established name recognition across western Arizona counties. Democratic nominee Danielle Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, also ran unopposed in her primary but has raised far less campaign cash and lacks comparable visibility or institutional support in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than two-to-one. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could theoretically alter the outcome before November 3, though none have materialized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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