Trump’s recent public overtures to Kim Jong Un, including scaled-back U.S.-South Korea military exercises and statements expressing interest in a 2026 meeting, have fueled speculation around renewed diplomacy. North Korea has responded with missile launches, explicit rejections from Kim Yo-jong, and insistence on major policy concessions such as acceptance of its nuclear status. Analysts note the absence of confirmed high-level communications or preparatory steps, while Pyongyang’s deepening ties with Russia and focus on arsenal expansion raise further barriers. Traders price a Trump visit to North Korean territory by year-end at low single-digit odds, reflecting these hurdles despite the precedent of 2018–2019 summits and potential APEC-related opportunities in November. Upcoming U.S.-China talks may test whether external pressure can shift Pyongyang’s stance.