**Trader consensus favors 25-49 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 61.5% implied probability**, reflecting the month's typical climatology of roughly 66 confirmed events alongside moderate early-September activity. Preliminary National Weather Service data through mid-month show 28 tornadoes, driven by scattered reports and 10 confirmed damage paths across regions including the Midwest, South, and East, consistent with non-tropical thunderstorm patterns rather than landfalling tropical cyclones. September activity often remains sparse without Gulf or Atlantic systems to enhance shear and instability, and the absence of major outbreaks so far aligns with historical patterns where totals cluster between 25 and 75 in most years. With roughly ten days remaining, updated Storm Prediction Center outlooks and any late-month convective episodes will determine whether counts stay near or exceed the lower end of the 50-74 bin.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月的美國龍捲風
2026年9月的美國龍捲風
25 - 49 68%
50 - 74 39%
75 - 124 16%
125 個或更多 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少於25個
3%
25 - 49
68%
50 - 74
39%
75 - 124
16%
125 個或更多
3%
25 - 49 68%
50 - 74 39%
75 - 124 16%
125 個或更多 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少於25個
$50 交易量
3%
25 - 49
$0 交易量
68%
50 - 74
$0 交易量
39%
75 - 124
$22 交易量
16%
125 個或更多
$45 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus favors 25-49 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 61.5% implied probability**, reflecting the month's typical climatology of roughly 66 confirmed events alongside moderate early-September activity. Preliminary National Weather Service data through mid-month show 28 tornadoes, driven by scattered reports and 10 confirmed damage paths across regions including the Midwest, South, and East, consistent with non-tropical thunderstorm patterns rather than landfalling tropical cyclones. September activity often remains sparse without Gulf or Atlantic systems to enhance shear and instability, and the absence of major outbreaks so far aligns with historical patterns where totals cluster between 25 and 75 in most years. With roughly ten days remaining, updated Storm Prediction Center outlooks and any late-month convective episodes will determine whether counts stay near or exceed the lower end of the 50-74 bin.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
交易量
$118結束日期
2026-10-15市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus favors 25-49 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 61.5% implied probability**, reflecting the month's typical climatology of roughly 66 confirmed events alongside moderate early-September activity. Preliminary National Weather Service data through mid-month show 28 tornadoes, driven by scattered reports and 10 confirmed damage paths across regions including the Midwest, South, and East, consistent with non-tropical thunderstorm patterns rather than landfalling tropical cyclones. September activity often remains sparse without Gulf or Atlantic systems to enhance shear and instability, and the absence of major outbreaks so far aligns with historical patterns where totals cluster between 25 and 75 in most years. With roughly ten days remaining, updated Storm Prediction Center outlooks and any late-month convective episodes will determine whether counts stay near or exceed the lower end of the 50-74 bin.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$118結束日期
2026-10-15市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET**Trader consensus favors 25-49 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 61.5% implied probability**, reflecting the month's typical climatology of roughly 66 confirmed events alongside moderate early-September activity. Preliminary National Weather Service data through mid-month show 28 tornadoes, driven by scattered reports and 10 confirmed damage paths across regions including the Midwest, South, and East, consistent with non-tropical thunderstorm patterns rather than landfalling tropical cyclones. September activity often remains sparse without Gulf or Atlantic systems to enhance shear and instability, and the absence of major outbreaks so far aligns with historical patterns where totals cluster between 25 and 75 in most years. With roughly ten days remaining, updated Storm Prediction Center outlooks and any late-month convective episodes will determine whether counts stay near or exceed the lower end of the 50-74 bin.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions