**Trader consensus heavily favors 25–74 total U.S. tornadoes in September 2026, with the 25–49 bin holding the highest implied probability at 67.5%.** September climatology typically yields 66–74 confirmed tornadoes (1991–2020 average near 66), driven by the seasonal retreat of the jet stream and reduced instability compared with spring or early summer peaks. Early-month activity produced roughly 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports through mid-September, aided by scattered frontal passages, yet recent Storm Prediction Center outlooks show only marginal or slight severe risks through late month amid zonal flow and limited moisture return. With nine days remaining and no organized tropical or strong mid-latitude systems currently expected, the market-implied odds reflect subdued late-September potential and the month’s inherent variability, where counts can range from the teens to well over 100 in outlier years.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月的美國龍捲風
2026年9月的美國龍捲風
25 - 49 62%
50 - 74 39%
75 - 124 15%
少於25個 3.2%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少於25個
3%
25 - 49
62%
50 - 74
39%
75 - 124
15%
125 個或更多
3%
25 - 49 62%
50 - 74 39%
75 - 124 15%
少於25個 3.2%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少於25個
$50 交易量
3%
25 - 49
$0 交易量
62%
50 - 74
$0 交易量
39%
75 - 124
$22 交易量
15%
125 個或更多
$45 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors 25–74 total U.S. tornadoes in September 2026, with the 25–49 bin holding the highest implied probability at 67.5%.** September climatology typically yields 66–74 confirmed tornadoes (1991–2020 average near 66), driven by the seasonal retreat of the jet stream and reduced instability compared with spring or early summer peaks. Early-month activity produced roughly 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports through mid-September, aided by scattered frontal passages, yet recent Storm Prediction Center outlooks show only marginal or slight severe risks through late month amid zonal flow and limited moisture return. With nine days remaining and no organized tropical or strong mid-latitude systems currently expected, the market-implied odds reflect subdued late-September potential and the month’s inherent variability, where counts can range from the teens to well over 100 in outlier years.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
交易量
$118結束日期
2026-10-14市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors 25–74 total U.S. tornadoes in September 2026, with the 25–49 bin holding the highest implied probability at 67.5%.** September climatology typically yields 66–74 confirmed tornadoes (1991–2020 average near 66), driven by the seasonal retreat of the jet stream and reduced instability compared with spring or early summer peaks. Early-month activity produced roughly 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports through mid-September, aided by scattered frontal passages, yet recent Storm Prediction Center outlooks show only marginal or slight severe risks through late month amid zonal flow and limited moisture return. With nine days remaining and no organized tropical or strong mid-latitude systems currently expected, the market-implied odds reflect subdued late-September potential and the month’s inherent variability, where counts can range from the teens to well over 100 in outlier years.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$118結束日期
2026-10-14市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET**Trader consensus heavily favors 25–74 total U.S. tornadoes in September 2026, with the 25–49 bin holding the highest implied probability at 67.5%.** September climatology typically yields 66–74 confirmed tornadoes (1991–2020 average near 66), driven by the seasonal retreat of the jet stream and reduced instability compared with spring or early summer peaks. Early-month activity produced roughly 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports through mid-September, aided by scattered frontal passages, yet recent Storm Prediction Center outlooks show only marginal or slight severe risks through late month amid zonal flow and limited moisture return. With nine days remaining and no organized tropical or strong mid-latitude systems currently expected, the market-implied odds reflect subdued late-September potential and the month’s inherent variability, where counts can range from the teens to well over 100 in outlier years.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions