NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
<1% 機率
$1,968,136 交易量
$1,968,136 交易量
2026-12-31
是
<1% 機率
$1,968,136 交易量
$1,968,136 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$1,968,136結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,968,136結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETNASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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