Celina Leão (PP), the current governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote, with 35% support compared to roughly 18-20% each for José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT). Her position stems from a broad center-right coalition, 58% approval of her management, and emphasis on recent gains in health services, housing, and public administration infrastructure. Arruda’s lower standing reflects both his polling deficit and ongoing legal uncertainty, including a TRE-DF denial of his candidacy that he is appealing to the TSE. Grass trails despite modest gains in some surveys, while remaining contenders such as Paula Belmonte (PSDB) and Ricardo Cappelli (PSB) register in the low single digits. Trader pricing mirrors these dynamics, with Leão as the clear frontrunner and limited upside priced for challengers ahead of the October runoff window if no candidate secures a first-round majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Celina Leão 84%
Arruda 8.8%
Leandro Grass 5.7%
Elisson <1%
$16,634 交易量
$16,634 交易量
Celina Leão
84%
Arruda
9%
Leandro Grass
6%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 84%
Arruda 8.8%
Leandro Grass 5.7%
Elisson <1%
$16,634 交易量
$16,634 交易量
Celina Leão
84%
Arruda
9%
Leandro Grass
6%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Celina Leão (PP), the current governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote, with 35% support compared to roughly 18-20% each for José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT). Her position stems from a broad center-right coalition, 58% approval of her management, and emphasis on recent gains in health services, housing, and public administration infrastructure. Arruda’s lower standing reflects both his polling deficit and ongoing legal uncertainty, including a TRE-DF denial of his candidacy that he is appealing to the TSE. Grass trails despite modest gains in some surveys, while remaining contenders such as Paula Belmonte (PSDB) and Ricardo Cappelli (PSB) register in the low single digits. Trader pricing mirrors these dynamics, with Leão as the clear frontrunner and limited upside priced for challengers ahead of the October runoff window if no candidate secures a first-round majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions