Recent U.S. inflation data, including August PCE at 3.4% year-over-year with core measures near 3%, combined with resilient growth and a tight labor market, underpin trader expectations for measured further tightening. Following the Fed's unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range in September, the median dot plot projected a 4.1% policy rate by year-end, implying one additional increase. Market-implied odds favor a pause at the October 27-28 meeting amid softer-than-expected price pressures, a hike at the December 8-9 session with updated projections, and a subsequent hold in January 2027 as policymakers assess cumulative effects on inflation and activity.