Strong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% 機率
$759,602 交易量
$759,602 交易量
2026-12-31
3% 機率
$759,602 交易量
$759,602 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
交易量
$759,602結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$759,602結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETStrong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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