The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola event on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and no signs of slowing, drives the 58% market-implied odds for a new country reporting a case before October 1. Transmission has expanded across six provinces amid conflict zones that complicate contact tracing and response efforts, while neighboring nations like South Sudan, Rwanda, and others face high importation risk due to population movement and shared borders. Uganda's localized cases ended months ago with no further spread, and France's single imported case resolved without additional transmission. Key near-term catalysts include daily case reports from the epicenter in Ituri, vaccine trial timelines starting in October, and any confirmed cross-border detections that could shift trader consensus on containment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於伊波拉：新的國家在10月1日之前確認？
伊波拉：新的國家在10月1日之前確認？
是
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-01
是
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola event on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and no signs of slowing, drives the 58% market-implied odds for a new country reporting a case before October 1. Transmission has expanded across six provinces amid conflict zones that complicate contact tracing and response efforts, while neighboring nations like South Sudan, Rwanda, and others face high importation risk due to population movement and shared borders. Uganda's localized cases ended months ago with no further spread, and France's single imported case resolved without additional transmission. Key near-term catalysts include daily case reports from the epicenter in Ituri, vaccine trial timelines starting in October, and any confirmed cross-border detections that could shift trader consensus on containment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
交易量
$132結束日期
2026-10-02市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola event on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and no signs of slowing, drives the 58% market-implied odds for a new country reporting a case before October 1. Transmission has expanded across six provinces amid conflict zones that complicate contact tracing and response efforts, while neighboring nations like South Sudan, Rwanda, and others face high importation risk due to population movement and shared borders. Uganda's localized cases ended months ago with no further spread, and France's single imported case resolved without additional transmission. Key near-term catalysts include daily case reports from the epicenter in Ituri, vaccine trial timelines starting in October, and any confirmed cross-border detections that could shift trader consensus on containment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$132結束日期
2026-10-02市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETThe ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola event on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and no signs of slowing, drives the 58% market-implied odds for a new country reporting a case before October 1. Transmission has expanded across six provinces amid conflict zones that complicate contact tracing and response efforts, while neighboring nations like South Sudan, Rwanda, and others face high importation risk due to population movement and shared borders. Uganda's localized cases ended months ago with no further spread, and France's single imported case resolved without additional transmission. Key near-term catalysts include daily case reports from the epicenter in Ituri, vaccine trial timelines starting in October, and any confirmed cross-border detections that could shift trader consensus on containment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions