Recent pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA placed the SPD at approximately 12 percent, consistent with a broader decline from 18.4 percent in the 2023 repeat election. This positioning stems from voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and the governing CDU-SPD coalition's exposure to national headwinds under the federal administration. Multiple September polls reinforced the low-teens range amid stable turnout expectations near 75 percent. The market's heavy weighting toward 10-13 percent mirrors this polling consensus and early projections. Late adjustments in final tallies or unusually strong performance among specific demographics could still push results marginally outside the interval, though such movements appear limited based on current data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於10-13% 96.2%
13-16% 3.6%
低於10% 2.5%
16%+ 1.4%
$71,408 交易量
$71,408 交易量
2026-09-20
低於10%
3%
10-13%
96%
13-16%
4%
16%+
1%
10-13% 96.2%
13-16% 3.6%
低於10% 2.5%
16%+ 1.4%
$71,408 交易量
$71,408 交易量
2026-09-20
低於10%
$41,542 交易量
3%
10-13%
$12,078 交易量
96%
13-16%
$12,286 交易量
4%
16%+
$5,501 交易量
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA placed the SPD at approximately 12 percent, consistent with a broader decline from 18.4 percent in the 2023 repeat election. This positioning stems from voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and the governing CDU-SPD coalition's exposure to national headwinds under the federal administration. Multiple September polls reinforced the low-teens range amid stable turnout expectations near 75 percent. The market's heavy weighting toward 10-13 percent mirrors this polling consensus and early projections. Late adjustments in final tallies or unusually strong performance among specific demographics could still push results marginally outside the interval, though such movements appear limited based on current data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
交易量
$71,408結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA placed the SPD at approximately 12 percent, consistent with a broader decline from 18.4 percent in the 2023 repeat election. This positioning stems from voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and the governing CDU-SPD coalition's exposure to national headwinds under the federal administration. Multiple September polls reinforced the low-teens range amid stable turnout expectations near 75 percent. The market's heavy weighting toward 10-13 percent mirrors this polling consensus and early projections. Late adjustments in final tallies or unusually strong performance among specific demographics could still push results marginally outside the interval, though such movements appear limited based on current data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$71,408結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETRecent pre-election surveys from institutes including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA placed the SPD at approximately 12 percent, consistent with a broader decline from 18.4 percent in the 2023 repeat election. This positioning stems from voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and the governing CDU-SPD coalition's exposure to national headwinds under the federal administration. Multiple September polls reinforced the low-teens range amid stable turnout expectations near 75 percent. The market's heavy weighting toward 10-13 percent mirrors this polling consensus and early projections. Late adjustments in final tallies or unusually strong performance among specific demographics could still push results marginally outside the interval, though such movements appear limited based on current data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions