**Diplomatic initiatives by the US-led Quad and the Quintet (AU, IGAD, Arab League, EU, UN) continue to target a 90-day humanitarian truce as the first step toward a broader ceasefire, yet battlefield realities and core disagreements limit near-term prospects.** The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan have signaled conditional openness to recent US proposals while insisting on full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities and demobilization under international oversight; the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo have accepted the truce in principle but reject aspects of the withdrawal framework. Recent catalysts include the first SAF-RSF prisoner exchange since 2023, facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto, and the UN Security Council’s September 2026 one-month extension of the partial Darfur arms embargo amid US efforts to broaden sanctions. Ongoing RSF drone strikes and localized offensives in Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur underscore persistent fighting and external supply concerns. The US has signaled that neither commander has a post-war governing role, while Quintet consultations in Khartoum in early September focused on civilian-led processes excluding the generals. These pressures from sanctions, mediation, and humanitarian conditions shape trader views on ceasefire timelines, though SAF-RSF differences on security arrangements remain the primary barrier.