Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained blockade preparations, or major escalation signals in recent months. Beijing has continued gray-zone tactics, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and routine aircraft incursions, alongside diplomatic protests over U.S. arms sales and Taiwanese officials' international visits, yet these fall short of the force posture needed for a full-scale operation in the narrow remaining window. The consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing historical patterns of incremental pressure rather than sudden kinetic action. Late developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt breakdown in U.S.-China summit planning or miscalculation during intensified maritime activity.