Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Partisan Voter Index and repeated double-digit margins in recent cycles. The long-serving incumbent, first elected in 1980 and unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, benefits from established constituent services, labor union endorsements, and the absence of competitive intra-party challenges. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who won her primary with roughly 73 percent, is a first-time candidate with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience in a seat last won by Republicans with over 67 percent in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as an unforeseen national shift in turnout, health-related developments, or significant campaign finance changes remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
$19,141 KL.
$19,141 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Smith (R)
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
5%
$19,141 KL.
$19,141 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Smith (R)
$6,168 KL.
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
$12,973 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Partisan Voter Index and repeated double-digit margins in recent cycles. The long-serving incumbent, first elected in 1980 and unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, benefits from established constituent services, labor union endorsements, and the absence of competitive intra-party challenges. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who won her primary with roughly 73 percent, is a first-time candidate with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience in a seat last won by Republicans with over 67 percent in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as an unforeseen national shift in turnout, health-related developments, or significant campaign finance changes remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$19,141Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Partisan Voter Index and repeated double-digit margins in recent cycles. The long-serving incumbent, first elected in 1980 and unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, benefits from established constituent services, labor union endorsements, and the absence of competitive intra-party challenges. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who won her primary with roughly 73 percent, is a first-time candidate with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience in a seat last won by Republicans with over 67 percent in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as an unforeseen national shift in turnout, health-related developments, or significant campaign finance changes remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$19,141Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Partisan Voter Index and repeated double-digit margins in recent cycles. The long-serving incumbent, first elected in 1980 and unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, benefits from established constituent services, labor union endorsements, and the absence of competitive intra-party challenges. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who won her primary with roughly 73 percent, is a first-time candidate with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience in a seat last won by Republicans with over 67 percent in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as an unforeseen national shift in turnout, health-related developments, or significant campaign finance changes remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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