Recent data show the 5-year Treasury yield trading near 4.86% as of September 20, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7% amid sticky core inflation, elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, and a repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations toward fewer cuts or modest hikes through year-end. Real yields have driven most of the backup, reflecting resilient growth, heavy Treasury supply from fiscal deficits, and a higher term premium, while breakeven inflation measures have remained relatively contained. Market-implied odds currently embed limited near-term easing, with the path sensitive to upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation in energy markets that could compress yields before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$25,443 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Below 4.50%
72%
Below 4.45%
66%
Below 4.40%
43%
Below 4.35%
35%
Below 4.30%
22%
Below 4.25%
19%
Below 4.20%
11%
Below 4.10%
12%
Below 4.00%
9%
$25,443 KL.
Below 4.50%
$1,495 KL.
72%
Below 4.45%
$2,939 KL.
66%
Below 4.40%
$1,894 KL.
43%
Below 4.35%
$3,247 KL.
35%
Below 4.30%
$2,642 KL.
22%
Below 4.25%
$834 KL.
19%
Below 4.20%
$4,098 KL.
11%
Below 4.10%
$6,694 KL.
12%
Below 4.00%
$1,600 KL.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 5-year Treasury yield trading near 4.86% as of September 20, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7% amid sticky core inflation, elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, and a repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations toward fewer cuts or modest hikes through year-end. Real yields have driven most of the backup, reflecting resilient growth, heavy Treasury supply from fiscal deficits, and a higher term premium, while breakeven inflation measures have remained relatively contained. Market-implied odds currently embed limited near-term easing, with the path sensitive to upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation in energy markets that could compress yields before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$25,443Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 5-year Treasury yield trading near 4.86% as of September 20, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7% amid sticky core inflation, elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, and a repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations toward fewer cuts or modest hikes through year-end. Real yields have driven most of the backup, reflecting resilient growth, heavy Treasury supply from fiscal deficits, and a higher term premium, while breakeven inflation measures have remained relatively contained. Market-implied odds currently embed limited near-term easing, with the path sensitive to upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation in energy markets that could compress yields before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Khối lượng
$25,443Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent data show the 5-year Treasury yield trading near 4.86% as of September 20, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7% amid sticky core inflation, elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, and a repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations toward fewer cuts or modest hikes through year-end. Real yields have driven most of the backup, reflecting resilient growth, heavy Treasury supply from fiscal deficits, and a higher term premium, while breakeven inflation measures have remained relatively contained. Market-implied odds currently embed limited near-term easing, with the path sensitive to upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation in energy markets that could compress yields before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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