The closely matched market prices around 275K–320K total ballots reflect a competitive U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, where both campaigns are prioritizing voter mobilization in a ranked-choice general election. Recent primary turnout exceeded recent cycles amid high-stakes races for Senate and an open governor’s seat, signaling sustained engagement that could lift November participation above typical off-year levels. At the same time, the absence of a presidential contest on the ballot and the lack of a polarizing national figure at the top are expected to moderate overall volume compared with 2024. Early voting, absentee access, and ongoing polling showing a narrow race continue to shape trader expectations for turnout in the first round of tabulation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAlaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
290K-305K 40%
305K-320K 30%
275K-290K 29%
260K-275K 7.8%
<230K
1%
230K-245K
<1%
245K-260K
1%
260K-275K
8%
275K-290K
31%
290K-305K
40%
305K-320K
30%
320K+
<1%
290K-305K 40%
305K-320K 30%
275K-290K 29%
260K-275K 7.8%
<230K
1%
230K-245K
<1%
245K-260K
1%
260K-275K
8%
275K-290K
31%
290K-305K
40%
305K-320K
30%
320K+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market prices around 275K–320K total ballots reflect a competitive U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, where both campaigns are prioritizing voter mobilization in a ranked-choice general election. Recent primary turnout exceeded recent cycles amid high-stakes races for Senate and an open governor’s seat, signaling sustained engagement that could lift November participation above typical off-year levels. At the same time, the absence of a presidential contest on the ballot and the lack of a polarizing national figure at the top are expected to moderate overall volume compared with 2024. Early voting, absentee access, and ongoing polling showing a narrow race continue to shape trader expectations for turnout in the first round of tabulation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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