**Trader consensus centers on 350K-400K total votes in Rhode Island’s November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate contest because the race features low competitiveness and limited voter mobilization drivers.** Democratic incumbent Jack Reed secured renomination in the September 9 primary with roughly 77% against minor challengers, while Republican Raymond McKay faces a solidly Democratic electorate where Reed holds a consistent 17-20 point lead in recent University of New Hampshire polling. Historical patterns show non-presidential-year Senate elections in the state typically produce turnout in the 350K-450K range, consistent with 2022 midterm levels around 43-44% of eligible voters. Recent primary early-voting records reflect localized interest in state races, yet widespread uncompetitive legislative contests and the absence of high-salience national issues or presidential coattails constrain broader participation. The market’s emphasis on the 350K-400K band reflects these structural factors shaping expected participation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRhode Island Senate Election: Turnout
Rhode Island Senate Election: Turnout
350K-400K 31.0%
400K-450K 30%
300K-350K 14%
450K+ 3.6%
<250K
1%
250K-300K
1%
300K-350K
14%
350K-400K
40%
400K-450K
30%
450K+
4%
350K-400K 31.0%
400K-450K 30%
300K-350K 14%
450K+ 3.6%
<250K
1%
250K-300K
1%
300K-350K
14%
350K-400K
40%
400K-450K
30%
450K+
4%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 350K-400K total votes in Rhode Island’s November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate contest because the race features low competitiveness and limited voter mobilization drivers.** Democratic incumbent Jack Reed secured renomination in the September 9 primary with roughly 77% against minor challengers, while Republican Raymond McKay faces a solidly Democratic electorate where Reed holds a consistent 17-20 point lead in recent University of New Hampshire polling. Historical patterns show non-presidential-year Senate elections in the state typically produce turnout in the 350K-450K range, consistent with 2022 midterm levels around 43-44% of eligible voters. Recent primary early-voting records reflect localized interest in state races, yet widespread uncompetitive legislative contests and the absence of high-salience national issues or presidential coattails constrain broader participation. The market’s emphasis on the 350K-400K band reflects these structural factors shaping expected participation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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