The competitive open-seat Iowa Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives elevated trader focus on turnout amid narrow polling margins and shifting national conditions. Recent surveys, including internal Democratic data showing Turek ahead among independents and broader averages placing Hinson narrowly in front, highlight the race’s sensitivity to base mobilization and no-party voter participation. Agricultural economic pressures, including tariff impacts on farm income, alongside underwater Trump approval in the state, add uncertainty over Republican enthusiasm and Democratic crossover potential. Voter roll purges of inactive registrants and concurrent gubernatorial competition further complicate projections, keeping probability mass concentrated in the 1.3M–1.45M range as campaigns intensify get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIowa Senate Election: Turnout
Iowa Senate Election: Turnout
1.35M-1.4M 31%
1.4M-1.45M 28%
1.3M-1.35M 21%
1.2M-1.25M 13%
<1.2M
2%
1.2M-1.25M
13%
1.25M-1.3M
8%
1.3M-1.35M
21%
1.35M-1.4M
31%
1.4M-1.45M
28%
1.45M-1.5M
4%
1.5M-1.55M
3%
1.55M-1.6M
<1%
1.6M+
6%
1.35M-1.4M 31%
1.4M-1.45M 28%
1.3M-1.35M 21%
1.2M-1.25M 13%
<1.2M
2%
1.2M-1.25M
13%
1.25M-1.3M
8%
1.3M-1.35M
21%
1.35M-1.4M
31%
1.4M-1.45M
28%
1.45M-1.5M
4%
1.5M-1.55M
3%
1.55M-1.6M
<1%
1.6M+
6%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The competitive open-seat Iowa Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives elevated trader focus on turnout amid narrow polling margins and shifting national conditions. Recent surveys, including internal Democratic data showing Turek ahead among independents and broader averages placing Hinson narrowly in front, highlight the race’s sensitivity to base mobilization and no-party voter participation. Agricultural economic pressures, including tariff impacts on farm income, alongside underwater Trump approval in the state, add uncertainty over Republican enthusiasm and Democratic crossover potential. Voter roll purges of inactive registrants and concurrent gubernatorial competition further complicate projections, keeping probability mass concentrated in the 1.3M–1.45M range as campaigns intensify get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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