**Trader consensus centers on 600K-680K total ballots cast in Idaho’s November 3, 2026, Senate general election, reflecting expectations for a high-midterm turnout rate relative to historical benchmarks.** With roughly 1 million registered voters, the favored bins imply participation near 60 percent, above the 43 percent rate in the 2022 midterm yet below the 63-64 percent seen in the 2024 presidential contest. Recent data show the May 2026 primary drew 30.1 percent turnout—slightly above the post-2000 median—providing a modest baseline amid limited statewide competition. The race between incumbent Republican Jim Risch and independent Todd Achilles is rated safe Republican across forecasters, with minimal Democratic presence after the primary nominee withdrew. This low-stakes environment typically dampens mobilization, yet Idaho’s ongoing population growth and elevated registration levels support solid overall participation. No major late-breaking events or high-profile ballot measures have emerged to shift these probabilities in the past month.