Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено30+ 37%
20-24 24%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Обс.
$20,574 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
11%
5-9
13%
10-14
8%
15-19
5%
20-24
24%
25-29
11%
30+
37%
30+ 37%
20-24 24%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Обс.
$20,574 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$1,410 Обс.
11%
5-9
$1,984 Обс.
13%
10-14
$3,537 Обс.
8%
15-19
$1,896 Обс.
5%
20-24
$3,556 Обс.
24%
25-29
$1,794 Обс.
11%
30+
$6,396 Обс.
37%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Обсяг
$20,574Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Обсяг
$20,574Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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