**Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election, with recent polling placing it ahead or in a technical tie for first.** López Aliaga, who served as mayor from 2023 to 2025 before resigning to pursue higher office, is listed as first regidor after the party’s original mayoral candidate resigned in August. Peruvian municipal law allows the top councilor on a winning list to assume the mayoralty, a mechanism confirmed by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) in early September after earlier eligibility challenges were resolved. September surveys from IEP and Campol Consulting showed his list at roughly 27–38% support, ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 11–17%, with Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others in single digits or lower. This polling edge, combined with the party’s recent municipal strength in Lima and the two-week timeline to election day, underpins trader consensus around López Aliaga’s outcome. Lower-priced candidates face structural barriers including limited name recognition, weaker party infrastructure, and the fragmented field of more than 20 contenders. No major late developments have altered the relative standings in the final stretch.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRafael López Aliaga 81.0%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 16.2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué 1.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 1.6%
$161,121 Обс.
$161,121 Обс.
Rafael López Aliaga
81%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
16%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 81.0%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 16.2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué 1.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 1.6%
$161,121 Обс.
$161,121 Обс.
Rafael López Aliaga
81%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
16%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election, with recent polling placing it ahead or in a technical tie for first.** López Aliaga, who served as mayor from 2023 to 2025 before resigning to pursue higher office, is listed as first regidor after the party’s original mayoral candidate resigned in August. Peruvian municipal law allows the top councilor on a winning list to assume the mayoralty, a mechanism confirmed by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) in early September after earlier eligibility challenges were resolved. September surveys from IEP and Campol Consulting showed his list at roughly 27–38% support, ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 11–17%, with Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others in single digits or lower. This polling edge, combined with the party’s recent municipal strength in Lima and the two-week timeline to election day, underpins trader consensus around López Aliaga’s outcome. Lower-priced candidates face structural barriers including limited name recognition, weaker party infrastructure, and the fragmented field of more than 20 contenders. No major late developments have altered the relative standings in the final stretch.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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