xAI's aggressive push for monthly frontier model releases has driven recent Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches while Grok 5 remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster, with repeated slips past original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. The 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model continues to lag behind intermediate 1.5T–2.1T variants like the upcoming Grok 4.7 targeted for mid-September, which incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized capabilities. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, combined with xAI's rapid iteration on smaller models and lack of new official timelines, keeps trader consensus favoring a late-2026 window over earlier resolution. Key catalysts include post-4.7 benchmarks and any Colossus scaling updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGrok 5 released by...?
Grok 5 released by...?
$12,268 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
21%
December 31
57%
$12,268 Обс.
October 31
$2,412 Обс.
10%
November 30
$736 Обс.
21%
December 31
$4,042 Обс.
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive push for monthly frontier model releases has driven recent Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches while Grok 5 remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster, with repeated slips past original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. The 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model continues to lag behind intermediate 1.5T–2.1T variants like the upcoming Grok 4.7 targeted for mid-September, which incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized capabilities. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, combined with xAI's rapid iteration on smaller models and lack of new official timelines, keeps trader consensus favoring a late-2026 window over earlier resolution. Key catalysts include post-4.7 benchmarks and any Colossus scaling updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,268Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive push for monthly frontier model releases has driven recent Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches while Grok 5 remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster, with repeated slips past original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. The 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model continues to lag behind intermediate 1.5T–2.1T variants like the upcoming Grok 4.7 targeted for mid-September, which incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized capabilities. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, combined with xAI's rapid iteration on smaller models and lack of new official timelines, keeps trader consensus favoring a late-2026 window over earlier resolution. Key catalysts include post-4.7 benchmarks and any Colossus scaling updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$12,268Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...xAI's aggressive push for monthly frontier model releases has driven recent Grok 4.5 and 4.6 launches while Grok 5 remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster, with repeated slips past original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. The 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model continues to lag behind intermediate 1.5T–2.1T variants like the upcoming Grok 4.7 targeted for mid-September, which incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized capabilities. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, combined with xAI's rapid iteration on smaller models and lack of new official timelines, keeps trader consensus favoring a late-2026 window over earlier resolution. Key catalysts include post-4.7 benchmarks and any Colossus scaling updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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