Meta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July claims from AI chief Alexandr Wang that it has reached GPT-5.5 parity on unnamed benchmarks through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark. Reports point to an October target tied to Meta Superintelligence Labs' Hatch agent platform and consumer monetization push, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. Traders are weighing unverified internal evaluations, rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic, and any slippage in the October window against Meta's roadmap updates, such as the recent Muse Spark 1.3 release. Key near-term catalysts include external benchmark verification and official announcements on coding or agentic capabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMeta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
$12,321 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
93%
$12,321 Обс.
September 30
$3,394 Обс.
5%
October 31
$6,384 Обс.
74%
November 30
$2,543 Обс.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July claims from AI chief Alexandr Wang that it has reached GPT-5.5 parity on unnamed benchmarks through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark. Reports point to an October target tied to Meta Superintelligence Labs' Hatch agent platform and consumer monetization push, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. Traders are weighing unverified internal evaluations, rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic, and any slippage in the October window against Meta's roadmap updates, such as the recent Muse Spark 1.3 release. Key near-term catalysts include external benchmark verification and official announcements on coding or agentic capabilities.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Обсяг
$12,321Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July claims from AI chief Alexandr Wang that it has reached GPT-5.5 parity on unnamed benchmarks through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark. Reports point to an October target tied to Meta Superintelligence Labs' Hatch agent platform and consumer monetization push, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. Traders are weighing unverified internal evaluations, rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic, and any slippage in the October window against Meta's roadmap updates, such as the recent Muse Spark 1.3 release. Key near-term catalysts include external benchmark verification and official announcements on coding or agentic capabilities.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$12,321Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Meta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July claims from AI chief Alexandr Wang that it has reached GPT-5.5 parity on unnamed benchmarks through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark. Reports point to an October target tied to Meta Superintelligence Labs' Hatch agent platform and consumer monetization push, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. Traders are weighing unverified internal evaluations, rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic, and any slippage in the October window against Meta's roadmap updates, such as the recent Muse Spark 1.3 release. Key near-term catalysts include external benchmark verification and official announcements on coding or agentic capabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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