Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks including coding, reasoning, and composite intelligence indices, drives the 88.5% implied probability that it will hold the top spot by end of October. The model’s 1M-token context window, strong agentic performance, and consistent outperformance over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier releases have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge. With only weeks remaining until resolution on Arena leaderboards, limited time exists for competitors to close the gap through new launches or updates, though rapid iteration in large language models means any unexpected capability jump could still shift positioning. Market odds reflect real-capital assessment of current demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Anthropic 89%
Google 8.0%
OpenAI 2.2%
Meta 1.6%
$361,530 Обс.
$361,530 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
89%
8%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 8.0%
OpenAI 2.2%
Meta 1.6%
$361,530 Обс.
$361,530 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$69,176 Обс.
89%
$36,078 Обс.
8%
OpenAI
$35,346 Обс.
2%
Meta
$34,147 Обс.
2%
SpaceXAI
$26,608 Обс.
<1%
Alibaba
$21,731 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$27,729 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$26,734 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$29,344 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$20,924 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$4,885 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks including coding, reasoning, and composite intelligence indices, drives the 88.5% implied probability that it will hold the top spot by end of October. The model’s 1M-token context window, strong agentic performance, and consistent outperformance over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier releases have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge. With only weeks remaining until resolution on Arena leaderboards, limited time exists for competitors to close the gap through new launches or updates, though rapid iteration in large language models means any unexpected capability jump could still shift positioning. Market odds reflect real-capital assessment of current demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$361,530Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks including coding, reasoning, and composite intelligence indices, drives the 88.5% implied probability that it will hold the top spot by end of October. The model’s 1M-token context window, strong agentic performance, and consistent outperformance over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier releases have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge. With only weeks remaining until resolution on Arena leaderboards, limited time exists for competitors to close the gap through new launches or updates, though rapid iteration in large language models means any unexpected capability jump could still shift positioning. Market odds reflect real-capital assessment of current demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$361,530Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads multiple September 2026 benchmarks including coding, reasoning, and composite intelligence indices, drives the 88.5% implied probability that it will hold the top spot by end of October. The model’s 1M-token context window, strong agentic performance, and consistent outperformance over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier releases have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge. With only weeks remaining until resolution on Arena leaderboards, limited time exists for competitors to close the gap through new launches or updates, though rapid iteration in large language models means any unexpected capability jump could still shift positioning. Market odds reflect real-capital assessment of current demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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