**Recent polling from July through early September 2026 shows Cid Gomes (PSB) leading Ceará’s Senate race with 23-27% support in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, positioning him as the clear frontrunner for one seat.** This leaves a tight contest for second place primarily between Capitão Wagner (União) and Luizianne Lins (Rede), with both typically polling in the mid-to-high teens and often within the margin of error across Ipsos-Ipec, Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys. Traders price Wagner ahead for second at 35% versus Luizianne at 26.5%, reflecting his stronger performance in some opposition-leaning scenarios and consistent name recognition, while Luizianne benefits from alignment on the “Ceará Forte” chapa with Cid. High undecided shares (10-20%), the ability of voters to split tickets across the two vacancies, and limited recent alliance shifts sustain the narrow gap ahead of the October 4 election. Further movement could come from final-week turnout among undecideds or clearer signals on second-vote preferences.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCapitão Wagner 36%
Luizianne 34%
Cid Gomes 27%
Alcides Fernandes 3.3%
$36,524 Обс.
$36,524 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
36%
Luizianne
37%
Cid Gomes
27%
Alcides Fernandes
3%
Lino Alves
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Catarina Matos
<1%
Reginaldo
<1%
Capitão Wagner 36%
Luizianne 34%
Cid Gomes 27%
Alcides Fernandes 3.3%
$36,524 Обс.
$36,524 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
$14,348 Обс.
36%
Luizianne
$11,623 Обс.
37%
Cid Gomes
$4,910 Обс.
27%
Alcides Fernandes
$1,100 Обс.
3%
Lino Alves
$942 Обс.
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$825 Обс.
<1%
Catarina Matos
$1,541 Обс.
<1%
Reginaldo
$1,234 Обс.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling from July through early September 2026 shows Cid Gomes (PSB) leading Ceará’s Senate race with 23-27% support in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, positioning him as the clear frontrunner for one seat.** This leaves a tight contest for second place primarily between Capitão Wagner (União) and Luizianne Lins (Rede), with both typically polling in the mid-to-high teens and often within the margin of error across Ipsos-Ipec, Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys.
Traders price Wagner ahead for second at 35% versus Luizianne at 26.5%, reflecting his stronger performance in some opposition-leaning scenarios and consistent name recognition, while Luizianne benefits from alignment on the “Ceará Forte” chapa with Cid. High undecided shares (10-20%), the ability of voters to split tickets across the two vacancies, and limited recent alliance shifts sustain the narrow gap ahead of the October 4 election. Further movement could come from final-week turnout among undecideds or clearer signals on second-vote preferences.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$36,524Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling from July through early September 2026 shows Cid Gomes (PSB) leading Ceará’s Senate race with 23-27% support in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, positioning him as the clear frontrunner for one seat.** This leaves a tight contest for second place primarily between Capitão Wagner (União) and Luizianne Lins (Rede), with both typically polling in the mid-to-high teens and often within the margin of error across Ipsos-Ipec, Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys.
Traders price Wagner ahead for second at 35% versus Luizianne at 26.5%, reflecting his stronger performance in some opposition-leaning scenarios and consistent name recognition, while Luizianne benefits from alignment on the “Ceará Forte” chapa with Cid. High undecided shares (10-20%), the ability of voters to split tickets across the two vacancies, and limited recent alliance shifts sustain the narrow gap ahead of the October 4 election. Further movement could come from final-week turnout among undecideds or clearer signals on second-vote preferences.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$36,524Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling from July through early September 2026 shows Cid Gomes (PSB) leading Ceará’s Senate race with 23-27% support in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, positioning him as the clear frontrunner for one seat.** This leaves a tight contest for second place primarily between Capitão Wagner (União) and Luizianne Lins (Rede), with both typically polling in the mid-to-high teens and often within the margin of error across Ipsos-Ipec, Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys. Traders price Wagner ahead for second at 35% versus Luizianne at 26.5%, reflecting his stronger performance in some opposition-leaning scenarios and consistent name recognition, while Luizianne benefits from alignment on the “Ceará Forte” chapa with Cid. High undecided shares (10-20%), the ability of voters to split tickets across the two vacancies, and limited recent alliance shifts sustain the narrow gap ahead of the October 4 election. Further movement could come from final-week turnout among undecideds or clearer signals on second-vote preferences.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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