**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dominate first-round polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 election, driving near-certain trader pricing on their runoff advancement.** Recent national surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, PoderData, and others place Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with no other candidate exceeding single digits. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within the margin of error. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his 2022 coup-related conviction concentrates right-wing support behind his son. With 13 registered candidates but fragmented opposition, the top-two structure and consistent polling trends underpin the market consensus reflected in current prices. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could still shift minor shares, though historical patterns favor the frontrunners consolidating.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$666,468 Обс.
Oct 3, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Renan Santos
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$666,468 Обс.
Flavio Bolsonaro
$110,963 Обс.
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$317,636 Обс.
96%
Renan Santos
$27,001 Обс.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,448 Обс.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$86,608 Обс.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,835 Обс.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$918 Обс.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$18,115 Обс.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,944 Обс.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dominate first-round polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 election, driving near-certain trader pricing on their runoff advancement.** Recent national surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, PoderData, and others place Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with no other candidate exceeding single digits. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within the margin of error. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his 2022 coup-related conviction concentrates right-wing support behind his son. With 13 registered candidates but fragmented opposition, the top-two structure and consistent polling trends underpin the market consensus reflected in current prices. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could still shift minor shares, though historical patterns favor the frontrunners consolidating.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$666,468Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dominate first-round polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 election, driving near-certain trader pricing on their runoff advancement.** Recent national surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, PoderData, and others place Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with no other candidate exceeding single digits. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within the margin of error. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his 2022 coup-related conviction concentrates right-wing support behind his son. With 13 registered candidates but fragmented opposition, the top-two structure and consistent polling trends underpin the market consensus reflected in current prices. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could still shift minor shares, though historical patterns favor the frontrunners consolidating.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$666,468Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dominate first-round polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 election, driving near-certain trader pricing on their runoff advancement.** Recent national surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, PoderData, and others place Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with no other candidate exceeding single digits. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within the margin of error. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his 2022 coup-related conviction concentrates right-wing support behind his son. With 13 registered candidates but fragmented opposition, the top-two structure and consistent polling trends underpin the market consensus reflected in current prices. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could still shift minor shares, though historical patterns favor the frontrunners consolidating.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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