Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$50,888 Обс.
$50,888 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Salud Carbajal (D)
98%
Bob Smith (R)
1%
$50,888 Обс.
$50,888 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Salud Carbajal (D)
$32,535 Обс.
98%
Bob Smith (R)
$18,352 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$50,888Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$50,888Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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