Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s Democratic lean (D+4 Partisan Voter Index), his incumbency since 2019, and strong primary performance where he defeated a progressive challenger with roughly 68% of the vote. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with his 2024 general election margin. Fundraising data shows Stanton maintaining a substantial edge, while Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in suburban Maricopa County communities. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbent reelection in similarly rated districts. Potential shifts could arise from a broader national Republican midterm surge, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though no such developments have materialized in recent months ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$37,233 Обс.
$37,233 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
6%
$37,233 Обс.
$37,233 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
$25,677 Обс.
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
$11,556 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s Democratic lean (D+4 Partisan Voter Index), his incumbency since 2019, and strong primary performance where he defeated a progressive challenger with roughly 68% of the vote. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with his 2024 general election margin. Fundraising data shows Stanton maintaining a substantial edge, while Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in suburban Maricopa County communities. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbent reelection in similarly rated districts. Potential shifts could arise from a broader national Republican midterm surge, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though no such developments have materialized in recent months ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$37,233Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s Democratic lean (D+4 Partisan Voter Index), his incumbency since 2019, and strong primary performance where he defeated a progressive challenger with roughly 68% of the vote. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with his 2024 general election margin. Fundraising data shows Stanton maintaining a substantial edge, while Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in suburban Maricopa County communities. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbent reelection in similarly rated districts. Potential shifts could arise from a broader national Republican midterm surge, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though no such developments have materialized in recent months ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$37,233Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s Democratic lean (D+4 Partisan Voter Index), his incumbency since 2019, and strong primary performance where he defeated a progressive challenger with roughly 68% of the vote. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with his 2024 general election margin. Fundraising data shows Stanton maintaining a substantial edge, while Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in suburban Maricopa County communities. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbent reelection in similarly rated districts. Potential shifts could arise from a broader national Republican midterm surge, late-breaking scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout, though no such developments have materialized in recent months ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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