**No at 76.5%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater atmospheric impact on trajectories intersecting Earth during the remainder of 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring show only sub-meter objects discovered hours before entry, such as the tiny 2026 RW1 bolide that struck over the Indian Ocean in September with negligible energy release. Historical NASA JPL fireball records indicate events at or above the 5 kt threshold occur on roughly annual to biennial timescales, yet the current observational baseline and lack of predicted impactors keep trader consensus firmly on the No side. Continued planetary defense surveillance through year-end will determine whether any undetected meter-scale impactor meets the resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
24% шанс
$313,828 Обс.
$313,828 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
24% шанс
$313,828 Обс.
$313,828 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 76.5%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater atmospheric impact on trajectories intersecting Earth during the remainder of 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring show only sub-meter objects discovered hours before entry, such as the tiny 2026 RW1 bolide that struck over the Indian Ocean in September with negligible energy release.
Historical NASA JPL fireball records indicate events at or above the 5 kt threshold occur on roughly annual to biennial timescales, yet the current observational baseline and lack of predicted impactors keep trader consensus firmly on the No side. Continued planetary defense surveillance through year-end will determine whether any undetected meter-scale impactor meets the resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$313,828Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 76.5%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater atmospheric impact on trajectories intersecting Earth during the remainder of 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring show only sub-meter objects discovered hours before entry, such as the tiny 2026 RW1 bolide that struck over the Indian Ocean in September with negligible energy release.
Historical NASA JPL fireball records indicate events at or above the 5 kt threshold occur on roughly annual to biennial timescales, yet the current observational baseline and lack of predicted impactors keep trader consensus firmly on the No side. Continued planetary defense surveillance through year-end will determine whether any undetected meter-scale impactor meets the resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$313,828Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**No at 76.5%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater atmospheric impact on trajectories intersecting Earth during the remainder of 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring show only sub-meter objects discovered hours before entry, such as the tiny 2026 RW1 bolide that struck over the Indian Ocean in September with negligible energy release. Historical NASA JPL fireball records indicate events at or above the 5 kt threshold occur on roughly annual to biennial timescales, yet the current observational baseline and lack of predicted impactors keep trader consensus firmly on the No side. Continued planetary defense surveillance through year-end will determine whether any undetected meter-scale impactor meets the resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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