Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, with the Kaub gauge at 25 cm as of September 9, 2026—the lowest in three decades—stem from prolonged dry weather and below-normal precipitation in the Alpine catchment. Official hydrology reports note that August rains offered only temporary relief before levels resumed declining, with no substantial recovery expected through mid-September amid the typical seasonal low-water period. Trader consensus on October or later reflects these hydrology trends and the historical reliance on sustained autumn rainfall or winter inflows for normalization, while the narrow spread among leading outcomes highlights uncertainty over short-term precipitation forecasts. Significant widespread rain events could accelerate recovery timelines, whereas extended dry conditions would reinforce probabilities for November or beyond.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 38%
No return before November 1, 2026 32%
September 15 - 30, 2026 22%
Before September 15, 2026 4.9%
$15,358 Обс.
$15,358 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
5%
September 15 - 30, 2026
22%
October 1 - 31, 2026
38%
No return before November 1, 2026
32%
October 1 - 31, 2026 38%
No return before November 1, 2026 32%
September 15 - 30, 2026 22%
Before September 15, 2026 4.9%
$15,358 Обс.
$15,358 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
$5,476 Обс.
5%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$3,864 Обс.
22%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$3,816 Обс.
38%
No return before November 1, 2026
$2,202 Обс.
32%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, with the Kaub gauge at 25 cm as of September 9, 2026—the lowest in three decades—stem from prolonged dry weather and below-normal precipitation in the Alpine catchment. Official hydrology reports note that August rains offered only temporary relief before levels resumed declining, with no substantial recovery expected through mid-September amid the typical seasonal low-water period. Trader consensus on October or later reflects these hydrology trends and the historical reliance on sustained autumn rainfall or winter inflows for normalization, while the narrow spread among leading outcomes highlights uncertainty over short-term precipitation forecasts. Significant widespread rain events could accelerate recovery timelines, whereas extended dry conditions would reinforce probabilities for November or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$15,358Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, with the Kaub gauge at 25 cm as of September 9, 2026—the lowest in three decades—stem from prolonged dry weather and below-normal precipitation in the Alpine catchment. Official hydrology reports note that August rains offered only temporary relief before levels resumed declining, with no substantial recovery expected through mid-September amid the typical seasonal low-water period. Trader consensus on October or later reflects these hydrology trends and the historical reliance on sustained autumn rainfall or winter inflows for normalization, while the narrow spread among leading outcomes highlights uncertainty over short-term precipitation forecasts. Significant widespread rain events could accelerate recovery timelines, whereas extended dry conditions would reinforce probabilities for November or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Обсяг
$15,358Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, with the Kaub gauge at 25 cm as of September 9, 2026—the lowest in three decades—stem from prolonged dry weather and below-normal precipitation in the Alpine catchment. Official hydrology reports note that August rains offered only temporary relief before levels resumed declining, with no substantial recovery expected through mid-September amid the typical seasonal low-water period. Trader consensus on October or later reflects these hydrology trends and the historical reliance on sustained autumn rainfall or winter inflows for normalization, while the narrow spread among leading outcomes highlights uncertainty over short-term precipitation forecasts. Significant widespread rain events could accelerate recovery timelines, whereas extended dry conditions would reinforce probabilities for November or beyond.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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