The tight contest in Vanier-Les Rivières reflects the retirement of the incumbent CAQ MNA and a fragmented vote among right-leaning parties in this Quebec City riding. Projections from mid-to-late September place the CAQ candidate Françoise Faverjon-Fortin, PCQ nominee Patrick Paquet, and PQ contender Stéphanie Martin within a few points of one another in the mid-20s percent range, with the Liberals trailing. Paquet’s municipal experience and local profile have helped the PCQ build on regional gains, while Martin’s journalism background and focus on Capitale-Nationale priorities bolster the PQ resurgence. Faverjon-Fortin benefits from residual CAQ support. The nomination deadline on September 17 and the October 5 vote leave room for late shifts from advance polls, local campaigning on fiscal and governance issues, or turnout differences among the main contenders.