Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula’s first-round support fluctuating between roughly 39% and 44% across major firms such as Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Nexus, and Quaest, with Flávio Bolsonaro consistently in the mid-to-high 30s. This narrow band, combined with similar rejection rates for both frontrunners and stable government approval near 45-48%, has kept the race polarized and the two leading market brackets closely matched. Fragmented support for lower-polling candidates including Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further compresses Lula’s share. A late surge in Bolsa Familia beneficiary turnout or clearer economic signals could push Lula above 44%, while stronger opposition mobilization on security or inflation concerns could hold him in the 41-44% range ahead of the October 4 vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update44%+ 44%
41-44% 42%
38-41% 10%
35-38% 5.7%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
3%
35-38%
6%
38-41%
10%
41-44%
42%
44%+
44%
44%+ 44%
41-44% 42%
38-41% 10%
35-38% 5.7%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
$495 Vol.
3%
35-38%
$646 Vol.
6%
38-41%
$1,192 Vol.
10%
41-44%
$1,654 Vol.
42%
44%+
$2,469 Vol.
44%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula’s first-round support fluctuating between roughly 39% and 44% across major firms such as Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Nexus, and Quaest, with Flávio Bolsonaro consistently in the mid-to-high 30s. This narrow band, combined with similar rejection rates for both frontrunners and stable government approval near 45-48%, has kept the race polarized and the two leading market brackets closely matched. Fragmented support for lower-polling candidates including Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further compresses Lula’s share. A late surge in Bolsa Familia beneficiary turnout or clearer economic signals could push Lula above 44%, while stronger opposition mobilization on security or inflation concerns could hold him in the 41-44% range ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volume
$6,455Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula’s first-round support fluctuating between roughly 39% and 44% across major firms such as Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Nexus, and Quaest, with Flávio Bolsonaro consistently in the mid-to-high 30s. This narrow band, combined with similar rejection rates for both frontrunners and stable government approval near 45-48%, has kept the race polarized and the two leading market brackets closely matched. Fragmented support for lower-polling candidates including Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further compresses Lula’s share. A late surge in Bolsa Familia beneficiary turnout or clearer economic signals could push Lula above 44%, while stronger opposition mobilization on security or inflation concerns could hold him in the 41-44% range ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,455Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula’s first-round support fluctuating between roughly 39% and 44% across major firms such as Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Nexus, and Quaest, with Flávio Bolsonaro consistently in the mid-to-high 30s. This narrow band, combined with similar rejection rates for both frontrunners and stable government approval near 45-48%, has kept the race polarized and the two leading market brackets closely matched. Fragmented support for lower-polling candidates including Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further compresses Lula’s share. A late surge in Bolsa Familia beneficiary turnout or clearer economic signals could push Lula above 44%, while stronger opposition mobilization on security or inflation concerns could hold him in the 41-44% range ahead of the October 4 vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKaugnay
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
88%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
52%
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