Michigan voters face an automatic ballot question on November 3, 2026, asking whether to convene a constitutional convention to draft a general revision of the 1963 state constitution. Trader consensus heavily favors rejection at 96% implied probability, reflecting the measure’s consistent defeats in 1978, 1994, and 2010 by wide margins. Recent polling shows yes support at 47% against 31% no with substantial undecided voters, yet experts note that ballot questions rarely overcome organized bipartisan opposition and the absence of a sustained advocacy campaign when trailing or hovering near 50% this close to election day. Structural barriers, including the multi-step delegate election and ratification process that would follow approval, further reinforce expectations of continuity with the existing document. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or high-profile endorsements could theoretically alter dynamics, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited pathways for reversal.