The compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$41,111,697 ปริมาณ
$41,111,697 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
รับ 3.25%
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$41,111,697 ปริมาณ
$41,111,697 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
รับ 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,111,697วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,111,697วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...The compressed timeline to the end of 2026, paired with China's sustained focus on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone incursions, and blockade rehearsals rather than large-scale amphibious mobilization, underpins trader consensus on a low probability of invasion. Recent Taiwan defense reports highlight ongoing PLA efforts to enhance landing capabilities through new vessels and logistics, yet note persistent shortfalls in joint operational readiness, compounded by senior military purges that have disrupted command structures. These patterns align with assessments that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and capability development over immediate conflict. A sudden escalation in cross-strait tensions or unexpected mobilization could still shift dynamics before December, though current verifiable developments show no such trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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