Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, routine naval transits, and maritime law-enforcement activity rather than visible amphibious mobilization or large-scale exercises signaling imminent kinetic action. Recent months show reduced PLA aerial incursions alongside continued diplomatic emphasis on the One China principle and cross-strait exchanges, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric capabilities including drone procurement and Han Kuang drills focused on blockade scenarios. This pattern aligns with historical preferences for erosion of sovereignty over direct assault within a narrow remaining window. Plausible shifts could still arise from miscalculation during intensified patrols, abrupt leadership decisions tied to U.S.-China diplomacy, or rapid changes in Taiwan's political or defense posture before December 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$41,114,289 ปริมาณ
$41,114,289 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
รับ 3.25%
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$41,114,289 ปริมาณ
$41,114,289 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
รับ 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, routine naval transits, and maritime law-enforcement activity rather than visible amphibious mobilization or large-scale exercises signaling imminent kinetic action. Recent months show reduced PLA aerial incursions alongside continued diplomatic emphasis on the One China principle and cross-strait exchanges, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric capabilities including drone procurement and Han Kuang drills focused on blockade scenarios. This pattern aligns with historical preferences for erosion of sovereignty over direct assault within a narrow remaining window. Plausible shifts could still arise from miscalculation during intensified patrols, abrupt leadership decisions tied to U.S.-China diplomacy, or rapid changes in Taiwan's political or defense posture before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,114,289วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, routine naval transits, and maritime law-enforcement activity rather than visible amphibious mobilization or large-scale exercises signaling imminent kinetic action. Recent months show reduced PLA aerial incursions alongside continued diplomatic emphasis on the One China principle and cross-strait exchanges, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric capabilities including drone procurement and Han Kuang drills focused on blockade scenarios. This pattern aligns with historical preferences for erosion of sovereignty over direct assault within a narrow remaining window. Plausible shifts could still arise from miscalculation during intensified patrols, abrupt leadership decisions tied to U.S.-China diplomacy, or rapid changes in Taiwan's political or defense posture before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,114,289วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, routine naval transits, and maritime law-enforcement activity rather than visible amphibious mobilization or large-scale exercises signaling imminent kinetic action. Recent months show reduced PLA aerial incursions alongside continued diplomatic emphasis on the One China principle and cross-strait exchanges, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric capabilities including drone procurement and Han Kuang drills focused on blockade scenarios. This pattern aligns with historical preferences for erosion of sovereignty over direct assault within a narrow remaining window. Plausible shifts could still arise from miscalculation during intensified patrols, abrupt leadership decisions tied to U.S.-China diplomacy, or rapid changes in Taiwan's political or defense posture before December 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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