Taiwan’s defense ministry assessments through early September 2026 highlight ongoing Chinese gray-zone pressure, including expanded coast guard patrols east of the island and routine air-sea operations, yet conclude that Beijing lacks the integrated command, logistics, and joint landing readiness for a full amphibious invasion in the near term. Xi Jinping’s repeated senior military purges have further degraded PLA coordination, shifting emphasis toward blockade rehearsals and incremental coercion rather than decisive action. U.S. intelligence assessments similarly see no fixed 2027 timeline, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% “No” price. A sudden shift could still occur if Taipei pursues formal independence steps or if major U.S. policy changes alter deterrence calculations before the December 2027 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว11% โอกาส
$3,106,609 ปริมาณ
$3,106,609 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2027
รับ 3.25%
11% โอกาส
$3,106,609 ปริมาณ
$3,106,609 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2027
รับ 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s defense ministry assessments through early September 2026 highlight ongoing Chinese gray-zone pressure, including expanded coast guard patrols east of the island and routine air-sea operations, yet conclude that Beijing lacks the integrated command, logistics, and joint landing readiness for a full amphibious invasion in the near term. Xi Jinping’s repeated senior military purges have further degraded PLA coordination, shifting emphasis toward blockade rehearsals and incremental coercion rather than decisive action. U.S. intelligence assessments similarly see no fixed 2027 timeline, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% “No” price. A sudden shift could still occur if Taipei pursues formal independence steps or if major U.S. policy changes alter deterrence calculations before the December 2027 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,106,609วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s defense ministry assessments through early September 2026 highlight ongoing Chinese gray-zone pressure, including expanded coast guard patrols east of the island and routine air-sea operations, yet conclude that Beijing lacks the integrated command, logistics, and joint landing readiness for a full amphibious invasion in the near term. Xi Jinping’s repeated senior military purges have further degraded PLA coordination, shifting emphasis toward blockade rehearsals and incremental coercion rather than decisive action. U.S. intelligence assessments similarly see no fixed 2027 timeline, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% “No” price. A sudden shift could still occur if Taipei pursues formal independence steps or if major U.S. policy changes alter deterrence calculations before the December 2027 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,106,609วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s defense ministry assessments through early September 2026 highlight ongoing Chinese gray-zone pressure, including expanded coast guard patrols east of the island and routine air-sea operations, yet conclude that Beijing lacks the integrated command, logistics, and joint landing readiness for a full amphibious invasion in the near term. Xi Jinping’s repeated senior military purges have further degraded PLA coordination, shifting emphasis toward blockade rehearsals and incremental coercion rather than decisive action. U.S. intelligence assessments similarly see no fixed 2027 timeline, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% “No” price. A sudden shift could still occur if Taipei pursues formal independence steps or if major U.S. policy changes alter deterrence calculations before the December 2027 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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