Strict non-proliferation norms under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, combined with US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, underpin the 95.7% trader consensus against any ally acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027. These arrangements provide security guarantees that reduce incentives for independent arsenals, while technical, diplomatic, and alliance pressures create substantial barriers to rapid development or deployment. No major policy shifts, treaty withdrawals, or verified programs have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Late developments such as an abrupt alliance rupture, secret program disclosure, or sudden regional escalation could still shift probabilities, though such paths face high institutional and international hurdles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว4% โอกาส
$212,517 ปริมาณ
$212,517 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
$212,517 ปริมาณ
$212,517 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Strict non-proliferation norms under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, combined with US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, underpin the 95.7% trader consensus against any ally acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027. These arrangements provide security guarantees that reduce incentives for independent arsenals, while technical, diplomatic, and alliance pressures create substantial barriers to rapid development or deployment. No major policy shifts, treaty withdrawals, or verified programs have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Late developments such as an abrupt alliance rupture, secret program disclosure, or sudden regional escalation could still shift probabilities, though such paths face high institutional and international hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$212,517วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Strict non-proliferation norms under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, combined with US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, underpin the 95.7% trader consensus against any ally acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027. These arrangements provide security guarantees that reduce incentives for independent arsenals, while technical, diplomatic, and alliance pressures create substantial barriers to rapid development or deployment. No major policy shifts, treaty withdrawals, or verified programs have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Late developments such as an abrupt alliance rupture, secret program disclosure, or sudden regional escalation could still shift probabilities, though such paths face high institutional and international hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$212,517วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Strict non-proliferation norms under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, combined with US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, underpin the 95.7% trader consensus against any ally acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027. These arrangements provide security guarantees that reduce incentives for independent arsenals, while technical, diplomatic, and alliance pressures create substantial barriers to rapid development or deployment. No major policy shifts, treaty withdrawals, or verified programs have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Late developments such as an abrupt alliance rupture, secret program disclosure, or sudden regional escalation could still shift probabilities, though such paths face high institutional and international hurdles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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