Strong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the 2026 Atlantic peak months, are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification according to NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks. These forecasts project only 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, with just a 5% chance of above-normal activity overall. As of early September, the basin has produced only weaker tropical storms and no hurricanes, consistent with model consensus favoring reduced wind shear patterns unfavorable for rapid strengthening. Traders assign high odds against a Category 4 landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 given these dynamics, though late-season steering shifts or forecast revisions could still allow an outlier storm to reach that intensity and track onshore.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
6% โอกาส
$343,011 ปริมาณ
$343,011 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
6% โอกาส
$343,011 ปริมาณ
$343,011 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the 2026 Atlantic peak months, are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification according to NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks. These forecasts project only 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, with just a 5% chance of above-normal activity overall. As of early September, the basin has produced only weaker tropical storms and no hurricanes, consistent with model consensus favoring reduced wind shear patterns unfavorable for rapid strengthening. Traders assign high odds against a Category 4 landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 given these dynamics, though late-season steering shifts or forecast revisions could still allow an outlier storm to reach that intensity and track onshore.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$343,011วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the 2026 Atlantic peak months, are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification according to NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks. These forecasts project only 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, with just a 5% chance of above-normal activity overall. As of early September, the basin has produced only weaker tropical storms and no hurricanes, consistent with model consensus favoring reduced wind shear patterns unfavorable for rapid strengthening. Traders assign high odds against a Category 4 landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 given these dynamics, though late-season steering shifts or forecast revisions could still allow an outlier storm to reach that intensity and track onshore.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$343,011วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the 2026 Atlantic peak months, are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification according to NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks. These forecasts project only 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full season, well below the 1991-2020 average of three, with just a 5% chance of above-normal activity overall. As of early September, the basin has produced only weaker tropical storms and no hurricanes, consistent with model consensus favoring reduced wind shear patterns unfavorable for rapid strengthening. Traders assign high odds against a Category 4 landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 given these dynamics, though late-season steering shifts or forecast revisions could still allow an outlier storm to reach that intensity and track onshore.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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