Trader consensus currently assigns an 87% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. These thresholds represent the extreme tail of natural hazard distributions: Category 5 events on the Saffir-Simpson scale occur infrequently in the Atlantic basin, while 8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per year according to USGS records, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still on centennial timescales. With the Atlantic hurricane season entering its final phase and no major seismic or volcanic alerts issued by monitoring agencies, updated seasonal outlooks continue to support elevated odds for “No” absent rapid intensification or an unforeseen event in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
13% โอกาส
$246,447 ปริมาณ
$246,447 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
13% โอกาส
$246,447 ปริมาณ
$246,447 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns an 87% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. These thresholds represent the extreme tail of natural hazard distributions: Category 5 events on the Saffir-Simpson scale occur infrequently in the Atlantic basin, while 8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per year according to USGS records, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still on centennial timescales. With the Atlantic hurricane season entering its final phase and no major seismic or volcanic alerts issued by monitoring agencies, updated seasonal outlooks continue to support elevated odds for “No” absent rapid intensification or an unforeseen event in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$246,447วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns an 87% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. These thresholds represent the extreme tail of natural hazard distributions: Category 5 events on the Saffir-Simpson scale occur infrequently in the Atlantic basin, while 8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per year according to USGS records, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still on centennial timescales. With the Atlantic hurricane season entering its final phase and no major seismic or volcanic alerts issued by monitoring agencies, updated seasonal outlooks continue to support elevated odds for “No” absent rapid intensification or an unforeseen event in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$246,447วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus currently assigns an 87% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. These thresholds represent the extreme tail of natural hazard distributions: Category 5 events on the Saffir-Simpson scale occur infrequently in the Atlantic basin, while 8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per year according to USGS records, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still on centennial timescales. With the Atlantic hurricane season entering its final phase and no major seismic or volcanic alerts issued by monitoring agencies, updated seasonal outlooks continue to support elevated odds for “No” absent rapid intensification or an unforeseen event in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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