Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
$29,309 ปริมาณ
$29,309 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Herb Conaway (D)
95%
Michael McGuire (R)
6%
$29,309 ปริมาณ
$29,309 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Herb Conaway (D)
$13,546 ปริมาณ
95%
Michael McGuire (R)
$15,763 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,309วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,309วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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