**Recent Bank of Japan policy tightening and persistent inflation pressures are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a Japan 10-year government bond yield at or above 3.0% by year-end 2026.** The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, the highest level since 1995, amid core CPI near 1.7% and ongoing wage growth. Yields have climbed to around 2.95–3.0% in recent sessions, their highest levels since 1996, supported by record fiscal budget requests, yen weakness, and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Markets currently price in additional tightening by December, with fiscal expansion concerns and global rate repricing reinforcing the elevated path. With only three months remaining, the 67.3% implied probability for 3.0%+ reflects these near-term catalysts, while lower buckets capture limited room for rapid reversal absent major policy shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 15.4%
2.4-2.6% 7.1%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 ปริมาณ
$29,873 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
15%
3.0%+
67%
3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 15.4%
2.4-2.6% 7.1%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 ปริมาณ
$29,873 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 ปริมาณ
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 ปริมาณ
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 ปริมาณ
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 ปริมาณ
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 ปริมาณ
15%
3.0%+
$11,705 ปริมาณ
67%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**Recent Bank of Japan policy tightening and persistent inflation pressures are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a Japan 10-year government bond yield at or above 3.0% by year-end 2026.** The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, the highest level since 1995, amid core CPI near 1.7% and ongoing wage growth. Yields have climbed to around 2.95–3.0% in recent sessions, their highest levels since 1996, supported by record fiscal budget requests, yen weakness, and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Markets currently price in additional tightening by December, with fiscal expansion concerns and global rate repricing reinforcing the elevated path. With only three months remaining, the 67.3% implied probability for 3.0%+ reflects these near-term catalysts, while lower buckets capture limited room for rapid reversal absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,873วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**Recent Bank of Japan policy tightening and persistent inflation pressures are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a Japan 10-year government bond yield at or above 3.0% by year-end 2026.** The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, the highest level since 1995, amid core CPI near 1.7% and ongoing wage growth. Yields have climbed to around 2.95–3.0% in recent sessions, their highest levels since 1996, supported by record fiscal budget requests, yen weakness, and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Markets currently price in additional tightening by December, with fiscal expansion concerns and global rate repricing reinforcing the elevated path. With only three months remaining, the 67.3% implied probability for 3.0%+ reflects these near-term catalysts, while lower buckets capture limited room for rapid reversal absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,873วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Bank of Japan policy tightening and persistent inflation pressures are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a Japan 10-year government bond yield at or above 3.0% by year-end 2026.** The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, the highest level since 1995, amid core CPI near 1.7% and ongoing wage growth. Yields have climbed to around 2.95–3.0% in recent sessions, their highest levels since 1996, supported by record fiscal budget requests, yen weakness, and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Markets currently price in additional tightening by December, with fiscal expansion concerns and global rate repricing reinforcing the elevated path. With only three months remaining, the 67.3% implied probability for 3.0%+ reflects these near-term catalysts, while lower buckets capture limited room for rapid reversal absent major policy shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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