The competitive open-seat Iowa Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives elevated trader focus on turnout amid narrow polling margins and shifting national conditions. Recent surveys, including internal Democratic data showing Turek ahead among independents and broader averages placing Hinson narrowly in front, highlight the race’s sensitivity to base mobilization and no-party voter participation. Agricultural economic pressures, including tariff impacts on farm income, alongside underwater Trump approval in the state, add uncertainty over Republican enthusiasm and Democratic crossover potential. Voter roll purges of inactive registrants and concurrent gubernatorial competition further complicate projections, keeping probability mass concentrated in the 1.3M–1.45M range as campaigns intensify get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIowa Senate Election: Turnout
Iowa Senate Election: Turnout
1.3M-1.35M 34%
1.35M-1.4M 28%
1.4M-1.45M 28%
1.2M-1.25M 13%
<1.2M
2%
1.2M-1.25M
22%
1.25M-1.3M
8%
1.3M-1.35M
34%
1.35M-1.4M
30%
1.4M-1.45M
28%
1.45M-1.5M
4%
1.5M-1.55M
4%
1.55M-1.6M
<1%
1.6M+
7%
1.3M-1.35M 34%
1.35M-1.4M 28%
1.4M-1.45M 28%
1.2M-1.25M 13%
<1.2M
2%
1.2M-1.25M
22%
1.25M-1.3M
8%
1.3M-1.35M
34%
1.35M-1.4M
30%
1.4M-1.45M
28%
1.45M-1.5M
4%
1.5M-1.55M
4%
1.55M-1.6M
<1%
1.6M+
7%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The competitive open-seat Iowa Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives elevated trader focus on turnout amid narrow polling margins and shifting national conditions. Recent surveys, including internal Democratic data showing Turek ahead among independents and broader averages placing Hinson narrowly in front, highlight the race’s sensitivity to base mobilization and no-party voter participation. Agricultural economic pressures, including tariff impacts on farm income, alongside underwater Trump approval in the state, add uncertainty over Republican enthusiasm and Democratic crossover potential. Voter roll purges of inactive registrants and concurrent gubernatorial competition further complicate projections, keeping probability mass concentrated in the 1.3M–1.45M range as campaigns intensify get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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