**Trader consensus in the Arkansas Senate Election turnout market centers on the 825K-900K range (48%) and 900K-975K range (34.5%), consistent with historical midterm patterns in the state.** Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in a race rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters, with recent polling averages showing Cotton ahead by roughly 8-11 points. This limited competitiveness typically reduces voter mobilization compared to presidential years. Arkansas recorded about 914,000 total ballots in the 2022 midterm Senate contest (50.8% turnout of registered voters) and over 1.18 million in the 2024 presidential election. With roughly 1.8 million registered voters and early voting scheduled to begin in mid-October, current pricing aligns with expectations of turnout near or modestly above 2022 levels absent major late-cycle catalysts. No significant recent developments—such as unusually high early voting reports or turnout-driving controversies—have emerged to shift these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วArkansas Senate Election: Turnout
Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout
825K-900K 46%
900K-975K 35%
975K-1.05M 10%
750K-825K 4.3%
<600K
<1%
600K-675K
<1%
675K-750K
<1%
750K-825K
4%
825K-900K
46%
900K-975K
35%
975K-1.05M
10%
1.05M+
3%
825K-900K 46%
900K-975K 35%
975K-1.05M 10%
750K-825K 4.3%
<600K
<1%
600K-675K
<1%
675K-750K
<1%
750K-825K
4%
825K-900K
46%
900K-975K
35%
975K-1.05M
10%
1.05M+
3%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:07 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in the Arkansas Senate Election turnout market centers on the 825K-900K range (48%) and 900K-975K range (34.5%), consistent with historical midterm patterns in the state.** Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in a race rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters, with recent polling averages showing Cotton ahead by roughly 8-11 points. This limited competitiveness typically reduces voter mobilization compared to presidential years. Arkansas recorded about 914,000 total ballots in the 2022 midterm Senate contest (50.8% turnout of registered voters) and over 1.18 million in the 2024 presidential election. With roughly 1.8 million registered voters and early voting scheduled to begin in mid-October, current pricing aligns with expectations of turnout near or modestly above 2022 levels absent major late-cycle catalysts. No significant recent developments—such as unusually high early voting reports or turnout-driving controversies—have emerged to shift these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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