**Eric Girard, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and Quebec Minister of Finance, holds a strong lead in the Groulx riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election.** He has represented the suburban Montreal-area district since 2018, securing re-election in 2022 with 47.75% of the vote and a substantial margin over Québec solidaire. Recent projections from sources like 338Canada assign him roughly 70% odds of victory, consistent with the riding's recent CAQ performance and the party's established base there. The main challenger is Parti Québécois candidate Marie-Claude Sarrazin, a longtime PQ activist and former prosecutor recruited in August 2026, who trails significantly in available assessments. Other declared candidates—including Québec solidaire's Marie-Noëlle Aubertin, the Liberal nominee, and the Conservative contender—register minimal support in current market pricing. No major late developments, such as candidate withdrawals or riding-specific controversies, have altered the positioning in the past month. Traders appear to price in Girard's incumbency advantage, ministerial profile, and the riding's voting patterns from the prior two cycles. The outcome remains subject to broader provincial trends and final voter turnout.