New People, operating as a pro-business systemic opposition party within Russia's managed multi-party system, faces structural constraints from United Russia's dominance and limited single-mandate opportunities. Recent partial results from the September 18-20, 2026, State Duma election show the party securing roughly 8% of the proportional vote after clearing the 5% threshold, consistent with pre-election polling ranges of 7-13% across state and independent surveys and building modestly on its 2021 performance. This vote share, combined with the party's candidate slate and regional dynamics, points to a faction size well below the upper ranges in the market. A substantially larger seat total would require markedly stronger single-mandate results or a final proportional share exceeding observed tallies.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<35 96.0%
35–44 2.3%
85+ 2.1%
65–74 <1%
$129,046 ปริมาณ
$129,046 ปริมาณ
<35
96%
35–44
2%
45–54
1%
55–64
1%
65–74
1%
75–84
<1%
85+
2%
<35 96.0%
35–44 2.3%
85+ 2.1%
65–74 <1%
$129,046 ปริมาณ
$129,046 ปริมาณ
<35
96%
35–44
2%
45–54
1%
55–64
1%
65–74
1%
75–84
<1%
85+
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...New People, operating as a pro-business systemic opposition party within Russia's managed multi-party system, faces structural constraints from United Russia's dominance and limited single-mandate opportunities. Recent partial results from the September 18-20, 2026, State Duma election show the party securing roughly 8% of the proportional vote after clearing the 5% threshold, consistent with pre-election polling ranges of 7-13% across state and independent surveys and building modestly on its 2021 performance. This vote share, combined with the party's candidate slate and regional dynamics, points to a faction size well below the upper ranges in the market. A substantially larger seat total would require markedly stronger single-mandate results or a final proportional share exceeding observed tallies.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win fewer than 45 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
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