Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X placed multiple intermediate releases ahead of Grok 5, directly shaping trader sentiment on release-date contracts. The xAI founder described Grok 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using a new C++ stack—as finishing foundational training that week before reinforcement learning, followed by 4.9 and then Grok 5 as the version he expects to reach AGI-level performance. Grok 5 remains in active training on Colossus 2 with no confirmed ship date; earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, and xAI has released no benchmarks or official timeline. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders assigning roughly even chances to a 2026 release while watching 4.8’s RL phase and any acceleration signals for swing factors.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$14,132 ปริมาณ
Nov 30, 2026
October 31
8%
November 30
16%
December 31
57%
$14,132 ปริมาณ
October 31
$3,320 ปริมาณ
8%
November 30
$1,260 ปริมาณ
16%
December 31
$4,474 ปริมาณ
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X placed multiple intermediate releases ahead of Grok 5, directly shaping trader sentiment on release-date contracts. The xAI founder described Grok 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using a new C++ stack—as finishing foundational training that week before reinforcement learning, followed by 4.9 and then Grok 5 as the version he expects to reach AGI-level performance. Grok 5 remains in active training on Colossus 2 with no confirmed ship date; earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, and xAI has released no benchmarks or official timeline. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders assigning roughly even chances to a 2026 release while watching 4.8’s RL phase and any acceleration signals for swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,132วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X placed multiple intermediate releases ahead of Grok 5, directly shaping trader sentiment on release-date contracts. The xAI founder described Grok 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using a new C++ stack—as finishing foundational training that week before reinforcement learning, followed by 4.9 and then Grok 5 as the version he expects to reach AGI-level performance. Grok 5 remains in active training on Colossus 2 with no confirmed ship date; earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, and xAI has released no benchmarks or official timeline. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders assigning roughly even chances to a 2026 release while watching 4.8’s RL phase and any acceleration signals for swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,132วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X placed multiple intermediate releases ahead of Grok 5, directly shaping trader sentiment on release-date contracts. The xAI founder described Grok 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using a new C++ stack—as finishing foundational training that week before reinforcement learning, followed by 4.9 and then Grok 5 as the version he expects to reach AGI-level performance. Grok 5 remains in active training on Colossus 2 with no confirmed ship date; earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, and xAI has released no benchmarks or official timeline. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders assigning roughly even chances to a 2026 release while watching 4.8’s RL phase and any acceleration signals for swing factors.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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